Redistricting, or the process of defining the areas of voters for each political office, happens every 10 years after the census. The last time North Carolina’s Republican-led General Assembly redrew the districts, they created maps that ended up in court for most of the decade.
In 2021, people expressed their opinions about the maps at 14 redistricting listening sessions across the state. The process was fraught with partisanship, resulting in a NC Supreme Court decision holding the maps drawn by GOP lawmakers unconstitutional.
The delay continued until last year when a court-appointed special master redrew the maps yielding seven congressional seats filled by Democrats in 2022 and an equal number filled by Republicans.
Last month, the Republican-majority NC legislature led the redrawing of the maps again after the NC Supreme court reversed the previous ruling on partisan gerrymandering, WUNC reports.
Only three redistricting sessions were held this time- one in Raleigh, one in Elizabeth City and one in Hickory.
Republican leaders released four new maps which include two possibilities for the congressional districts, one for state Senate and one for the state House.
North Carolina political expert Chris Cooper of Western Carolina University has followed the redistricting process for years.
“Those are going to get debated next week voted on, and presumably passed next week,” Cooper said of the changes.
He said it is possible small changes could be made to these maps on voting day, but the Republican supermajority means the proposed plans will likely be the final maps.
“These do not go to [Governor] Roy Cooper for a veto. So once the General Assembly decides to take action on them, those are going to be the maps - at least until somebody sues,” Cooper said.
State legislature to decide between two congressional maps
NC-11, the most western district which represents more than 14 counties, remains a majority Republican district under the new proposal, but Buncombe County voters could see a change in their representatives from District 11 to District 14.
“One of these maps actually includes a little carve out in Buncombe County where the 14th congressional district, currently represented by Democrat Jeff Jackson...that actually might be in part of Buncombe County,” Cooper said.
Jackson’s re-election is highly unlikely under either of the new maps, he explained.
In a newsletter, Jackson said the "absolutely brutal gerrymanders" means he cannot win re-election.
"In both maps, my current district becomes an R+15 seat. That means the last Republican presidential candidate carried the seat by 15 points," he wrote. "Just to be clear, it is completely impossible to win a seat that leans the other way by 15 points. Not even a remote chance."
Jackson is not alone. In other parts of the state, currently Democratic-leaning Congressional districts have also been redrawn.
"If either one becomes final - and we’ll know next week - I’m completely toast in Congress, as are two or three of my colleagues," he said.
New congressional maps for NC just dropped.
— Rep. Jeff Jackson (@JeffJacksonNC) October 19, 2023
A brutal gerrymander.
Just being honest: I’m probably toast in Congress. pic.twitter.com/Y0rnrBANyX
Cooper said the 1st district which borders Virginia and includes the cities of Greenville, Rocky Mount and Roanoke Rapids, is one area where the two proposed maps differ in potential outcome.
“The big question mark in North Carolina right now sort of hovering over the northeastern part of the state, an African-American Democrat named Don Davis represents the first congressional district. One of these maps would double bunk him with Valerie Foushee in Durham," Cooper said. "In other words, [they] put to Democrats in the same district and only one is going to emerge victorious. The other map would keep Davis roughly where he is but put him in a very competitive district."
Unlike state representation, congressional representatives can live anywhere in the state so district shifts can have a different impact.
The changes influenced the 2022 Congressional race. During the primary in 2021, Republican Rep. Madison Cawthorn announced that he would switch districts from NC-11 to NC-13 after redistricting maps were released.
"I have every confidence in the world that wherever I run, the 14th Congressional district will send a patriotic fighter to DC," Cawthorn said in 2021. "But, knowing the political realities of the 13th district, I'm afraid that another establish 'go-along to get-along' Republican will prevail there. I will not let that happen."
Ultimately Cawthorn switched back to the 11th district, and in 2022, he was defeated by current Rep. Chuck Edwards.
“The Congressional maps change, it changes somebody's calculus, right?" Cooper said. "If you're a Democrat where you want to run, if you're Republican where you want to run, is going to be based on what party that district is likely to support."
Biggest shift in state representatives in Buncombe County
The maps do not hold many changes for Western North Carolina’s state representatives.
The Stephenson County clustering rule requires counties to be kept together for state seats, Cooper said.
West of Asheville, the districts remain very similar. However in Buncombe County, districts 114, 115 and 116 shift.
Cooper analyzed the partisanship of each area: District 116, currently represented by Democratic Rep. Caleb Rudow, and District 114, currently represented by Democratic Rep. Eric Ager, remain majority Democratic while District 115, currently represented by Democratic Rep. Lindsay Prather, will become a majority Republican district.
“Lindsey Prather, if these maps become the final maps, is going to be in a district that is going to be more difficult for the Democratic party,” Cooper said.
A change in state representative lines also impacts the lines for the county commission districts, Cooper explained.
“If we do see these big changes to our state house districts, unfortunately if you live in Buncombe County you are also definitely going to see some changes on your county commission districts too," he said. "Pay attention if you are confused, you have every right to be but if you want to participate in democracy and exercise your right to vote then you need to watch these lines."
Senate changes
The maps don’t hold too many changes for Western North Carolina’s state senate.
District 50, currently represented by Republican Sen. Kevin Corbin, looks the same as prior maps. District 48, currently represented by Republican Sen. Tim Moffit, and District 47, currently represented by Republican Sen. Ralph Hise, and District 46, currently represented by Republican Sen. Warren Daniel, all stay the same under the new proposal.
The biggest change is for District 49, currently represented by Democratic Sen. Julie Mayfield.
“The new maps are going to have it where it's almost a donut around the city of Asheville, which will be Julie Mayfield's district,” Cooper said.
