MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:
We wanted to spend a few more minutes on the talks between Israel and Lebanon, so we've called Daniel Shapiro. Among many roles in government service and diplomacy and national security, he was the U.S. ambassador to Israel during the Obama administration, and we reached him in Tel Aviv. Good morning, Ambassador. Thank you for joining us.
DANIEL SHAPIRO: Good morning, Michel.
MARTIN: So let me just start with the latest news here. This morning on the Fox Business Network, President Trump said the war will be over soon. Let's play a short clip.
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PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: I think it's close to over, yeah. I mean, I view it as very close to over.
MARTIN: Now, the president has said this several times since the war began on February 28. Is there anything that might cause you to agree with that assessment?
SHAPIRO: It sounds like another case of President Trump trying to talk down the oil markets. Now, he could try to get an agreement with Iran if there's another round of talks coming up. He really can't end the war if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened to international shipping. But if he wants it to end very quickly and achieve that objective, he's probably going to have to show more flexibility on some of the other issues - the Iranian nuclear program, the Iranian proxy network - that were the subject of the negotiations when Vice President Vance was there last week.
MARTIN: And we know that thousands of American troops are headed to the region and due to arrive soon. What difference do you think that will make at this juncture?
SHAPIRO: It gives him options. It certainly gives him options to do ground operations that he has considered - extracting the nuclear materials with special forces, seizing islands or shoreline along the strait to try to help that - facilitate the safe shipping. But that also means a longer war, so that's not consistent with his statement that the war is almost over.
MARTIN: So let me ask you about the talks between Israel and Lebanon, which is why we called you. Israel and Lebanon reached a ceasefire in 2024, but now many developments since then. Just since the start of the war with Iran, Hezbollah has killed Israeli soldiers and civilians. Israel's invasion of Lebanon has killed both Hezbollah operatives and civilians - more than a million people displaced, tens of thousands of homes destroyed, according to the Lebanese officials. Given all that's gone on, what do you think it would take for the two sides to reach a new agreement this time?
SHAPIRO: It's actually a classic case of a crisis, meaning the war in Iran, producing an opportunity elsewhere - in Lebanon. Now, these talks yesterday, which weren't ever - there's no precedent for that kind of direct Israeli-Lebanese talks. They're not going to immediately address normalized relations or a peace agreement, although that is plausible over time. Israel has no territorial claims in Lebanon, and the boundary requires just modest technical adjustments.
The real big challenge is dealing with a spoiler. That's Hezbollah. And it's key for the government of Lebanon to direct its armed - Lebanese armed forces to carry out a real disarmament. They fell short of that commitment after the 2024 ceasefire, but many Lebanese want that. They really loathe Hezbollah. It's acted as a state within a state, controlling arms outside of the government's control, and it's repeatedly dragged Lebanon into wars with Israel to serve Iranian interests. So there's actually a Lebanese constituency to do what needs to be done to disarm Hezbollah.
MARTIN: Well, you know, Hezbollah is deeply entrenched in Lebanese politics and military. Is members hold seats in the Parliament and in the Cabinet. And Hezbollah is not at the table, so how would this actually be achieved here?
SHAPIRO: Well, they are part of the Lebanese government. They've also conducted campaigns of terror and assassination in Lebanon against Lebanese who disagree with them. So they've really just set themselves up - at least their military wing, which is fused to their political wing - as operating outside of government control. Look, Lebanon wants a ceasefire out of this. There's no question. And Israel's reluctant to grant one. They've been - repeatedly been attacked by Hezbollah, and their northern communities have really been left unlivable by a rain of rocket fire from Lebanon.
What Israel needs to do is respond as appropriate, but try to moderate that campaign - they're now doing it only in the south - to give the Lebanese armed forces space to work. And Israel needs to understand that the strikes that they conduct that cause civilian casualties actually undercuts the legitimacy that the government of Lebanon and the Lebanese armed forces need to do the work of disarmament.
MARTIN: And after yesterday's meeting, the State Department, the U.S. State Department, said any agreement to cease hostilities between Israel and Lebanon must be - and I'm quoting here - "brokered by the United States and not through any separate track," unquote. Can you help me understand that?
SHAPIRO: That sounds like a decision to exclude France from these negotiations. France has - which has long historical ties to Lebanon, has tried to do its own moderating and negotiating between Israel and Lebanon. It hasn't had much success, but it is something that Israel has indicated they are not open to. They don't feel the French are sufficiently attentive to their security needs, and I think that's what that signaled.
MARTIN: That's Daniel Shapiro, a former U.S. ambassador to Israel. Ambassador, thanks so much for sharing these insights with us. I do hope we'll talk again.
SHAPIRO: Thanks again, Michel. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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