Colorado State University’s first 2026 hurricane forecast predicts below-average activity. But North Carolina has seen its fair share of devastating storms, even during weaker seasons.
Deztynee Bryan is a graduate research assistant at Colorado State University who worked on this year’s forecast. WFAE’s climate reporter Zachary Turner spoke with Bryan to learn more about what we should expect this year in the Atlantic.
Zachary Turner: So your forecast indicates that we're transitioning from La Niña to El Niño, but what does that mean exactly?
Deztynee Bryan: We're expecting suppressed hurricane activity in the, in the Atlantic.
When you enter that El Niño phase, you have more chances of strong vertical wind shear, and hurricanes don't like that. It helps to destroy or inhibit hurricane formation.
Turner: How are we seeing warming global temperatures change the forecast?
Bryan: Tropical cyclones really want that high sea surface temperature. If you don't have those high sea surface temperatures, that tends to suppress tropical cyclone activity.
We have high temperatures right now in the Pacific, and that anomaly helps to create vertical wind shear in some parts of the Atlantic, which suppresses tropical cyclone formation.
Turner: It sounds like when it comes to hurricane formation, higher sea surface temperatures globally aren’t necessarily going to increase the number of storms. In some cases, it might decrease the number of storms based on vertical wind shear.
Bryan: It all depends on where these sea surface temperature anomalies are found.
Turner: Are there instances where a higher sea surface temperature in another part of the ocean would cause more hurricanes?
Bryan: Yes. If you were to go into a La Niña pattern, when you have those warmer sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic, then yes, you definitely have a higher chance of more tropical storms.
Turner: For folks living in the southeastern United States who are looking at this report, they're seeing it's a below-average hurricane season predicted — what should they be taking away from this early forecast?
Bryan: I know it's easy to take away from the forecast that, ‘Oh, lower than average seasonal forecast? Yay! Less storms.’ That should not be the takeaway.
It only takes one storm to make it an active season for someone, so I think local risk should be looked at more.
Turner: Speaking of local risk, we've recently had Hurricane Helene and Tropical Storm Chantal, which have struck more inland communities. What should folks be on the lookout for as we're getting closer to hurricane season?
Bryan: I think the storms that you mentioned are good examples; you don't always get the worst from a landfalling tropical cyclone straight off the ocean. The storms that track through Florida and go straight north can have major impacts as well, especially in the mountainous areas.
In 2023, there was [Tropical Storm] Ophelia. Even though it was a below-normal season, there was still an impact on the Carolinas.
