SARAH MCCAMMON, HOST:
August 1 is just over two weeks away, and it's an important date. President Trump has set that deadline to negotiate trade deals, including possible tariffs. For right now, though, many people and businesses are wondering how it will all affect them and how to prepare. To talk about that, we've got Stacey Vanek Smith on the line. She reports for Bloomberg and hosts the podcast "Everybody's Business." Hi, Stacey.
STACEY VANEK SMITH: Hi, Sarah.
MCCAMMON: OK, big question. If these tariffs go into effect, how long is it going to take for people to actually feel the effects of these tariffs in their day-to-day lives?
SMITH: Well, I think it very much depends on the product we're talking about. A lot of people are saying we're already seeing the effects of the tariffs in the inflation report that Scott was just talking about, things like furniture, toys and clothes - they're quite sensitive to tariffs, and we're already seeing prices move up on those things. Other things - companies were able to stockpile a lot of things. I mean, Apple was airlifting iPhones to the U.S. in anticipation of tariffs. So those things will probably take a bit longer to see the effects of tariffs on those, but we will see them.
MCCAMMON: OK. I just want you to break this down a little bit for me. You mentioned things like clothing and a few other items. I mean, where are people likely to see the biggest price hikes?
SMITH: I mean, I think it depends very much on how all of the August 1 drama settles out. The tariffs are moving around so much all the time now. I think it's just really going to depend on where we're talking. I mean, Brazil supplies - you know, where there's a 50% tariff right now - most of the flowers for - most of our Valentine's Day roses - I think, 80%. So that could be for - a very rough Valentine's Day for many people.
But other things, you know, if we're talking about iPhones, there are - dozens of countries contribute components to iPhones. So it's just - it depends on where those components come from, what the tariffs are in those countries. It's just a lot of chaos right now.
MCCAMMON: All right. So, depending on how this plays out, maybe we'll be switching to different kinds of flowers come Valentine's Day.
SMITH: (Laughter).
MCCAMMON: But in the meantime, Stacey, are there things people can do or that - or should avoid to get ready for these kinds of changes?
SMITH: That's a great question. I mean, I think because the tariffs are so widespread and because our country has really been moving in a free trade direction ever since the end of World War II, almost everything we buy is from overseas or has an overseas component. We import millions of things every day. It's just - it's almost impossible to live a life only with things made in the U.S. right now. That could change. But, I mean, everything from - I talked to a customs broker who specializes in fish, and we import fish from dozens of countries. They go out to seafood restaurants and grocery stores across the country every day, and, you know, he was saying that, you know, the margins of a - even a 10% tariff can kind of wipe out the margins on something like shrimp. And, you know, if we see more of that kind of thing happening, it's just going to really change the face of what we buy and affect the prices of everything in all the stores - grocery stores, retail stores, all of it.
MCCAMMON: Yeah. It seems like there's only so much adjusting and switching products you can do if it's a pervasive enough impact.
SMITH: Yes. No, I think that's really true. I think at the end of the day, we're going to see the effects, whether it's higher prices, whether it's the availability of certain things. I mean, one thing I've heard consistently from companies and - small and large is that they're just going to be importing less. I was talking to a baker in Los Angeles who said she's experimenting with recipes that involve no chocolate and no vanilla because those two things are imported. They're getting quite expensive. So we're going to see it show up in all kinds of ways, I think, ways we expect and ways we don't.
MCCAMMON: OK, no chocolate is already making me sad.
SMITH: (Laughter). I know. I'm sorry.
MCCAMMON: In about 30 seconds or so, Stacey, you know, Trump imposed import taxes during his first term. Are there any lessons to be learned from that experience that might apply now?
SMITH: I think that was a really different situation because it was quite targeted to China. China is, you know, obviously one of our top trading partners, but this is so widespread and so pervasive, I think we haven't seen anything like this, and Trump is - likes to cut these deals. And so I just think this chaos is what we're going to see for the foreseeable future.
MCCAMMON: All right, Stacey. Well, thanks for telling us what we know and what to look out for. That's Stacey Vanek Smith at Bloomberg.
SMITH: Thank you, Sarah.
MCCAMMON: Thanks again. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.
