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Global instability has decreased demand for tabletop war-games, as in highly detailed simulations used to predict how the U.S. might fare in a war with, say, China over Taiwan. NPR's Emily Feng got to see how one such war-game was played and why people with access to classified information are playing them.
EMILY FENG, BYLINE: This war-game involves three round tables, and on each, a large map of Taiwan and China. There's little blue and red pieces representing submarines, warplanes and ships, and more than a dozen men all here to play a game, imagining what could happen if China blockaded Taiwan.
UNIDENTIFIED PERSON #1: If they shoot at us, we shoot back.
FENG: The think tank running this game series is the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. They want to figure out how to counter China if it blocked all food, fuel and arms from getting to Taiwan. Web Ewell is one of the players.
WEB EWELL: This thing can devolve into a global economic war rather than a military shooting war if the Chinese choose the blockade route.
FENG: Ewell directs a war-gaming division at the Center for Naval Analysis, which advises the U.S. Navy. Today, he's playing team Taiwan, and he's playing alongside Raymond DuBois, another player for team USA today.
RAYMOND DUBOIS: I'm having a lot of fun.
FENG: DuBois is a former acting undersecretary of the Army, and at one point, he was the most senior administrator at Pentagon headquarters.
DUBOIS: See, the thing about what we've done over the last three years is that these are unclassified games.
FENG: Then he mouths to me, no, they're not.
DUBOIS: Those of us who are playing come from a background where we're very aware of what's not only on the planning and policy side, but on the system side.
FENG: Meaning, the players often have access to classified information and are aware of the latest weaponry the U.S. commands. Last year, DuBois played another version of today's game, simulating a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. In that series, he played team China.
DUBOIS: And we won.
FENG: Today's game is messier. The players, including team China, soon discover how difficult it is to de-escalate from even a blockade. Japan gets roped in. The U.S. attempts to airlift in supplies and cut off trade routes, and it all gets bloody.
UNIDENTIFIED PERSON #2: Oh, Taiwan does the surface to air. We do the air to surface.
FENG: And things in real life also get heated.
EWELL: So I'm getting no information. I don't even know where the maritime militia is.
FENG: That's Ewell from the Center for Naval Analysis. He says the arguing shows the game is working.
EWELL: You got to get at the human aspects of these problems, in particular, risk preferences and things like that. So the whole point is to get people's heads into a situation, thinking about how they would actually act if they were in it.
FENG: A few hours in, Taiwan offers a surprise truce to China. They offer to have their president resign, to kick out American troops and to open their coveted semiconductor industry to China. Here's Eric Heginbotham, a research scientist at MIT's Security Studies Program and a coordinator today for team China.
ERIC HEGINBOTHAM: So no compliance with U.S. export controls.
UNIDENTIFIED PERSON #3: Correct.
FENG: In return...
UNIDENTIFIED PERSON #3: What they're asking for is a commitment to not invade the island.
HEGINBOTHAM: Ever?
FENG: Ever. Mark Cancian, from the hosting think tank, helped design today's game. Out of the four times it's been played so far, two ended in vicious retaliation. He says today's ending was more peaceful.
MARK CANCIAN: I would say less violent outcomes because we still ended up with, you know, a couple dozen ships sunk and aircraft shot down and thousands of casualties, but not as much as in some of the previous games where the casualties were much higher.
FENG: China has hyped up military drills and military harassment around Taiwan. Military analysts warn China could be practicing for a real blockade. So DuBois argues war-gaming is more needed than ever.
DUBOIS: The more that people actually really talk to each other about, what do you think the other side will do? If we do this, what are they going to do? If they do this, what are we going to - I think that's healthy because I think, ultimately, it prevents a war.
FENG: As in, war-games don't just help us test out new defense strategies. They also act as a deterrent because the games show just how deadly war actually is.
Emily Feng, NPR News, Washington.
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