The race in North Carolina’s 11th Congressional District is heating up.
Political experts say the race between Republican Congressman Chuck Edwards and Democratic challenger Jamie Ager has tightened in recent months.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report recently changed its rating of the race from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican,” meaning it’s not as certain that a GOP candidate will win. Other political handicappers have also shifted the race to “Lean Republican” in recent months.
The 11th District, which includes most of western North Carolina, has sent a Republican to Congress in every election since 2010. Edwards has represented the district since 2023.
Erin Covey, House editor at the Cook Report, said while it’s not quite in toss-up territory, it could end up there by November.
“As we get closer to the election, we’ll have more polling from both parties,” Covey told BPR in an interview this week. “We’ll have more information about how the candidates are running their campaigns, the amount of money they’re able to raise. And we’ll be able to see which ones of those seats that are a little bit redder actually do end up moving into the toss-up column. It wouldn’t surprise me if this is one of those districts, because it feels like the ingredients are there.”
Recent polling shows the 11th District is among several Republican-held seats that are becoming more competitive amid a national political landscape that favors Democrats.
“Now, it doesn’t mean that Democrats are going to win all of these seats,” Covey said. “But the ones where they have the best opportunities are, I think, places where you have a strong Democratic nominee like Jamie Ager, who has the right profile for the district [and] is raising a lot of money. And then an incumbent who is also maybe vulnerable for various reasons.”
Covey said those reasons include the slow pace of Hurricane Helene recovery and a House ethics investigation into Edwards over alleged inappropriate behavior by the congressman toward female staff members. Edwards has denied any wrongdoing.
On Helene recovery, Edwards has frequently touted his role on the House Appropriations Committee, which he said in a recent Facebook post has allowed him to make “sure Western North Carolina's priorities were included every step of the way.”
Ager, meanwhile, has drawn criticism from some in his party’s liberal base for signing a centrist Democratic pledge called the Promise to America, the Asheville Citizen-Times reported.
In a post on his Facebook page, Ager responded by calling himself a “Mountain Democrat.”
“That means fighting to bring funds home for Hurricane Helene recovery, lowering the cost of living, and fighting corruption in Washington,” Ager said. “But it also means keeping our taxpayer dollars spent here and not on wars overseas, defending our LGBTQ and immigrant neighbors, and working to build a Western NC that works for all of us. I don't take a dime of money from corporate PACs or foreign lobbying entities like AIPAC, and my number one promise will always be to fight for you.”
