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The El Niño Southern Oscillation is projected to be supersized this year — and that could mean extreme weather in Western North Carolina. Assistant state climatologist Corey Davis says this weather pattern means the Blue Ridge region should prepare for a warm, very rainy winter.
The World Climatological Organization’s latest report on El Niño shows that this year’s iteration of this cyclical weather pattern could be the strongest in 70 years, with ocean temperatures in the Pacific potentially pushing up to 4C above average.
Though the phenomenon has been happening for millions of years, global climate change is giving it more power as the oceans store more heat from the atmosphere. Hot air holds more moisture, and the winds blowing east could bring heavy rains, even as it pushes other parts of the world into drought.
This happens, Davis explained, because the jet stream – basically, a conveyor belt for global weather systems – picks up moisture as it moves across bodies of water.
“The southern branch of the jet stream will really be anchored in place down to our south,” Davis said. “It’ll be coming across the Gulf. As moisture moves up from the Gulf, it’ll get dropped on the Carolinas.”
The wet cycle may relieve the ongoing statewide drought, but Davis warns the change could be abrupt, causing some flash flooding. The five wettest winters in Asheville – 2018-19, 2009-10, 1997-98, 2015-16, and 1953-54 – were all during El Niño years. The phenomenon could have impacts on areas where debris remains and water flow has changed since Hurricane Helene in 2024.
El Niño begins in October, and will likely last for about six months, Davis said, or at least until February.
As Western North Carolina handles ongoing Helene recovery tasks nearly two years on, Davis acknowledged, these predictions could be difficult to hear. However, he added, we have the advantage of some advance notice, which means preparations can be made at the city, county, neighborhood and individual levels.
“Look at the areas around your house or in your neighborhood or your community that have been more prone to flooding,” Davis said. He points to simple actions “like clearing the storm drains to make sure that water can flow through more easily” to help reduce personal flood risk in the coming months.
