Amid a tough election landscape for Republicans across the country, GOP candidates for the N.C. House are spending on TV ads in districts that haven’t been very competitive in the past.
A WUNC News review of FCC campaign advertising disclosures for TV stations in cities across North Carolina found that the N.C. House Republican Caucus has so far booked ads on behalf of about 14 candidates.
Some of those are the typical battlegrounds like suburban Wake County, where ads are backing incumbent Republican Reps. Mike Schietzelt and Erin Paré.
But others are places where Republican candidates have won by larger margins in past elections. In House District 7 – Franklin County and parts of Vance County – TV ads are helping GOP candidate Cory Thornton, who’s running against Franklin County Commissioner Mark Speed, a Democrat.
It’s the same district where current Republican Rep. Matthew Winslow (who’s not seeking re-election) won in 2024 by 13 percentage points.
Head west to the Triad, and TV viewers are also seeing ads for Republican House candidates who have easily won in the past.
TV ads are promoting incumbent Rep. Dennis Riddell of Alamance County, who’s facing a rematch against LeVon Barnes, the Democrat he defeated by 10 percentage points two years ago.
Republicans are also advertising in another Alamance race on behalf of Republican Ryan Moffitt, and in Guilford County on behalf of incumbent Reps. Alan Branson and John Blust.
The Blust ads are particularly notable because the Democratic Party says it’s withdrawn support from its candidate, Shelly Headen, over social media posts that among other things called for “an attack on US soil … preferably Alabama, Louisiana … where the stupid people live.”
The Blust ads highlight the social media posts.
House Republicans are also using TV ads in campaigns for Cabarrus County incumbent Reps. Jonathan Almond and Brian Echevarria, Mecklenburg County incumbent Rep. Tricia Cotham, Pitt County incumbent Rep. Tim Reeder, New Hanover County House candidate Dane Scalise, Pasquotank County incumbent Rep. Bill Ward, and Rep. Anna Ferguson, who represents a three-county district west of Asheville.
But so far, Republicans aren’t spending on TV ads in some other competitive House races where their incumbents face close races. Those include Forsyth County Rep. Jeff Zenger, Nash County Rep. Allen Chesser and former Granville County Rep. Frank Sossamon.
Andy Lancaster of the House Republican Caucus organization told WUNC News that TV ad spending decisions could change before Election Day.
“Regarding TV buys in general, those decisions are being made week to week,” he said. “All of our candidates are running vigorous campaigns, including grassroots door-knocking as well as across a variety of mediums including mail, digital, and on-air.”
Little or no public polling data is available for individual N.C. House races, but Democrats argued this week that bad poll numbers for Republicans are what prompted a special session to temporarily suspend the state’s gas tax.
And while Republicans spending money on TV in once safe districts might seem like good news for Democrats, WUNC’s review of TV ad disclosures found few records of ad campaigns by Democrats in state House races.
House Democratic Caucus spokesman Sam Lozier told WUNC that New Hanover County House candidate Tim Merrick is running broadcast TV ads, while cable TV ads are running for Ken McCool (who’s challenging Cotham in Mecklenburg) and incumbent Rep. Dante Pittman of Wilson.
“We’re also running digital and streaming ads in most of our targeted races and evaluating where additional placements can amplify those efforts,” Lozier said in an email. “It'll likely shift, but we don't know what that looks like quite yet.”
The stakes for N.C. House races are particularly high this year. Republicans are currently one seat short of a veto-proof majority, and they’ve been able to override many of Gov. Josh Stein’s vetoes with help from two former moderate Democrats who lost primaries this year.
Democrats are optimistic that this year’s election could give them stronger margins to uphold Stein’s vetoes next year.
And as WUNC News previously reported, some experts think a “blue wave” year creates at least some possibility that Democrats could take the majority in the House – if they’re able to flip about a dozen of the 20 GOP-held seats rated as “lean Republican” or “toss-up” by the John Locke Foundation.
While the heavy TV ad spending by Republicans could suggest the GOP House campaigns have a financial advantage over Democrats, exact numbers won’t be available until the end of October when campaign finance reports are due.
