NYT Poll Shows Clinton & Cooper With Winning Margins in NC

Oct 25, 2016

Credit geology.com

Democrat Hillary Clinton is safely ahead of Republican Donald Trump in North Carolina according to a poll released Tuesday by the New York Times and Siena University.  The results run counter to a poll released Monday by Monmouth University, which showed the race neck and neck.  Both polls were conducted between Oct 20th and the 23rd.

The former first lady, New York Senator, and Secretary of State tops the businessman 46 to 39%, a lead that survives the polls margin of error which is plus or minus 3.5%.  Libertarian Gary Johnson receives 8% of the vote in the poll.  The last NYT/Siena taken in September had Clinton and Trump tied.   The last poll occurred before the debates, and before a tape of Trump was leaked that contained him making several crude remarks about women.  Both appear to have taken a toll on his support, as his "negative favorability" (difference between those who approve and disapprove of him in poll) is now much higher than Clinton's, 25 to 8%.

In the governor's race, Democrat Roy Cooper tops incumbent Republican Pat McCrory 51 to 45% in the poll, a margin that is also outside of the statistical margin of error.  But the race has tightened some since the last NYT/Siena poll in September, which had Cooper winning by 8%.

For U.S. Senate in North Carolina, Democrat Deborah Ross and incumbent Republican Richard Burr are in a statistical dead heat, with Ross getting 47% to Burr's 46%.  Ross was up four in last month's NYT/Siena poll.

A further breakdown of the numbers shows Democratic candidates winning with women voters and minorities, while Republican candidates have the edge with male voters and whites.  Geographically, Democrats are winning only one area of North Carolina according to the poll - the "north central" part of the state, which includes the Research Triangle, Winston-Salem, and Greensboro.  But the party is winning that vote rich area by so much it negates Republicans getting majority support in all other areas of North Carolina.   Democrats led in all three races in western North Carolina in the September poll, but are losing in this latest survey.

For full results and methodology click here.

                                                                           September poll          October poll

Presidential Election

Hillary Clinton  (D)                                                            41%                             46%

Donald Trump   (R)                                                            41%                             39%

Gary Johnson (L)                                                                 11%                               8%

Favorability Ratings

Hillary Clinton - Favorable                                              43%                            45%

Hillary Clinton - Unfavorable                                          54%                            53%

Donald Trump - Favorable                                               39%                            36%

Donald Trump - Unfavorable                                           58%                           61%

Gubernatorial Election

Pat McCrory (R)                                                                  42%                            45%

Roy Cooper (D)                                                                   50%                            51%

North Carolina U.S. Senate Election

Richard Burr (R)                                                                 42%                             46%

Deborah Ross (D)                                                                46%                             47%