The Climate Change Link To More And Bigger Wildfires

Jul 27, 2021
Originally published on July 28, 2021 1:48 am

Across the country people have been experiencing hazy skies from big wildfires in Western states. More than 3 million acres have already burned, and fire experts say this is just the beginning. A historic drought and heatwave have primed forests to burn big this year, just like they did last year.

A conservative estimate from the U.S. Forest Service said by 2015, fire season had gotten about two-and-a-half months longer than it was in the 1970s. Scientists say that number is growing even larger. At the same time, wildfires are burning more acres than ever before. The nine largest wildfire seasons since reliable records begin have occurred since 2005.

Nick Mott, editor of the Montana Public Radio podcast, Fireline, sat down with NPR to talk about the role climate change is playing in the west's worsening fire seasons.

NOTE: This interview has been edited and condensed for clarity.


Interview Highlights

Fire season is getting longer because of climate change?

People who study the natural world say it is. Like Cathy Whitlock, a paleoecologist at Montana State University. "I would say 95% of it's climate driven," she told me.

That 95% number is definitely the subject of lots of debate. But she thinks it's the right number because she's been looking back at thousands of years of climate history.

How is that possible?

Whitlock goes out on lakes, and then drills way down into the mud at their bottoms and pulls out these long core samples, because when wildfires burn, they deposit ash and charcoal on lakes, which settles down into the mud - so those cores contain records of wildfires going back thousands of years. She says the record shows that there is always more fire when the climate is warmer.

"When you have warmer winters you have less snowpack," she said. "Snow turns to rain. Earlier in the year, the snowpack that you get melts off faster and so you're left with less water in your high elevations as you go into summer."

Another researcher who looks at those lake mud samples is Phil Higuera, a professor of fire ecology at the University of Montana, and he just published "Rocky Mountain subalpine forests now burning more than any time in recent millennia."

"For most of my career, when we look at the past, kind of in a comforting way, we see that, oh, these things that are unusual in the human timescale, they've happened before," Higuera said. "But this paper was different."

Different how?

Because fire has always been a natural part of forest life cycles, so if we look back and see evidence of a similar rate of big fires throughout history, maybe what we're seeing now is normal. But his new paper shows that human-influenced climate change is altering our ecosystems in ways that are totally new and really, really fast. Something else to point out is that sometimes the climate is changing so drastically after a fire burns, the same type of forest doesn't grow back in its place. The landscape is literally changing in the wake of the flames.

He says these big, ecosystem-level changes are really starting to hit home for him.

"What I realized is that while I've spent 20 years thinking about how ecosystems would respond to climate change and how fire regimes would respond to climate change, I have not thought about what that would feel like to witness," Higuera said. "And that has been surprising and and a little bit jolting for sure."

How do ecologists want their science to make a difference? What's the lesson they want land managers and the public to take away?

One key lesson is that fire isn't always bad. Scientists like Andrew Larson, who teaches forest ecology at the University of Montana, say it's natural and essential to ecosystems.

"Fire is an inevitable part of this landscape," he said. "It's just - we live in a flammable place. And we have to get past the promise that forestry made the world years and years ago that we can control fire and put it out and regulate the forest in that way. What we can do is say yes, we live in a smoky, flammable environment. How do we deal with that?"

Tony Incashola Jr., head of tribal forestry with the Confederated Salish and Kootenai Tribes in Montana.
Victor Yvellez / Montana Public Radio

He means things like getting indoor air filters to make sure we're staying healthy when our cities are full of smoke. Or getting rid of the flammable stuff on and around our homes to make our communities more resilient. Or even trying to reverse the trend of more and more development in forests and fire-prone landscapes.

Something else to keep in mind is that fire is normal. Lots of forests need fire - before Europeans got here there was lots of natural fire in North America, and Native people also set fires to manage the landscapes they lived on. It helps open up the land, it can rejuvenate growth, some species of animals thrive after burns.

For the podcast, we talked with Tony Incashola, Jr., who's head of forestry with the Confederated Salish and Kootenai Tribes in northwest Montana. Lots of tribes, like Incashola's, are working to bring fire back to the landscape.

"It's not only a gift to us, but it's more of a gift to the land," Incashola said.

But it can be really hard to see that bigger picture and embrace 'good fire' when we're totally socked in with smoke, or the flames are approaching a community.

Copyright 2021 Montana Public Radio. To see more, visit Montana Public Radio.

SARAH MCCAMMON, HOST:

Across the country, people have been experiencing hazy skies from huge wildfires in Western states, and fire experts say this is just the beginning. A historic drought and heat wave have primed forests to burn big this year, just like they did last year. Climate change is playing a role. And joining us now to talk about it is Nick Mott, the editor of Montana Public Radio's podcast called "Fireline," which takes a deep dive into humans' relationship with fire. Welcome, Nick.

NICK MOTT, BYLINE: Thanks for having me.

MCCAMMON: First off, how is the fire situation there in Montana right now?

MOTT: Where I am, about an hour north of Yellowstone National Park, we've had smoky skies for weeks now, and we're still in the middle of some really extreme drought and heat. Today is supposed to be over 100 degrees. It seems like everybody's a little bit on edge about what this all could mean for the rest of the season.

MCCAMMON: Yeah, especially after the year that the West had last year. And speaking of the West, what about the rest of the region? How does Montana compare to other Western states?

MOTT: So far at least, I'd say we're pretty lucky here. The bootleg fire in Oregon, for example, is over 400,000 acres. It's so big and so hot it's generating its own weather, meaning it's creating these clouds that can cause wind and lightning that can make the fire grow even bigger.

MCCAMMON: More than 400,000 acres is huge. That's twice the size of New York City. So put that in context. Have these wildfires been getting larger over the years?

MOTT: By just about every measure, yes, they have. But the first thing to keep in mind is that fire itself is normal. Lots of forests need fire. Before Europeans got here, there was lots of natural fire in North America, and Indigenous people also set fires to manage the landscape they lived on. It helps open up the land. It can rejuvenate growth. Some species of animals thrive after burns. For the podcast, we talked with Tony Incashola Jr., who's head of forestry with the Confederated Salish and Kootenai Tribes in northwest Montana. Lots of tribes like Incashola's are working to bring fire back to the landscape.

TONY INCASHOLA JR: It's not only a gift to us, but it's more of a gift to the land.

MCCAMMON: So would you say that the huge fires like the one in Oregon right now - is that normal?

MOTT: Not necessarily. One reason we're seeing them is because fire season is now 2 1/2 months longer than it was in the 1970s, according to U.S. Forest Service estimate that some think is pretty conservative. And if we look at the statistics, the nine years with the most acres burned since we started keeping track have all been since 2005. So, yeah, we're seeing bigger, hotter fires, and some folks are calling it a fire year, not even a fire season anymore.

MCCAMMON: Wow. Nick, I want to ask you the question we're asking about so many extreme weather events these days, which is to what extent are these big fires due to climate change?

MOTT: People who study the natural world say to a really large extent. I talked with Cathy Whitlock, who's a paleoecologist at Montana State University.

CATHY WHITLOCK: I would say 95% of it's climate-driven.

MOTT: That 95% number is definitely the subject of lots of debate. She thinks it's the right number because she's been looking back at thousands of years of climate history.

MCCAMMON: OK, thousands of years - how do you do that? How is that possible?

MOTT: Well, she actually goes out on lakes and then drills way down into the mud at their bottoms and pulls out these long core samples, because when wildfires burn, they deposit ash and charcoal on the tops of these lakes, which settles down and into that mud. So those cores contain records of wildfires going back thousands of years. She says the record shows that there's always more fire when the climate's warmer.

WHITLOCK: When you have warmer winters, you have less snowpack. Snow turns to rain earlier in the year. The snowpack that you get melts off faster. And so you're left with less water in your high elevations as you go into summer.

MOTT: Another researcher who looks at those lake mud samples is Phil Higuera, a professor of fire ecology at the University of Montana. And he just published a paper with the title "Rocky Mountain Subalpine Forests Now Burning More Than Any Time In Recent Millennia."

MOTT: For most of my career, when we look at the past, it kind of in a comforting way - we see that, oh, these things that are unusual in the human time scale - they've happened before. But this paper was different.

MCCAMMON: Different how?

MOTT: Because like I said earlier, fire has always been a natural part of forest life cycles. So if we look back and see evidence of a similar rate of big fires throughout history, maybe what we're seeing now is normal. But his new paper shows that human-influenced climate change is altering our ecosystems in ways that are totally new and really, really fast. Something else to point out is that sometimes the climate is changing so drastically after a fire burns, the same type of forest doesn't grow back in its place. The landscape is literally changing in the wake of the flames. Higuera says these big ecosystem-level changes are really starting to hit home for him.

PHIL HIGUERA: And what I've realized is that while I've spent 20 years thinking about how ecosystems would respond to climate change and how fire regimes would respond to climate change, I have not thought about what that would feel like to witness. That has been surprising and a little bit jolting, for sure.

MCCAMMON: And Nick, does that line up with what you are hearing from other scientists who study this kind of thing?

MOTT: Oh, absolutely. Andrew Larson, who also teaches forest ecology at the University of Montana, told us about a fire outside the city where he lives a few years ago that just choked the area with smoke for weeks.

ANDREW LARSON: I mean, it was almost traumatic. I don't want to use that word lightly, but I mean, it - God, it was brutal.

MOTT: He said it was so bad he found himself personally reverting to what he considers an unscientific way of thinking about fire - that it's bad and that it always needs to be eliminated. He spends a lot of time trying to educate the public on how some fire is actually really beneficial and even essential for forests. He says, as a culture, it's really, really hard to get hold of that idea.

LARSON: Sometimes it makes me feel a little bit - I don't know - like, am I making any difference here with the science (laughter)? That's what I wonder sometimes.

MCCAMMON: It all sounds a little grim. How do ecologists like Andrew Larson want their science to make a difference? I mean, what's the lesson that they want land managers and policymakers and members of the public to take away?

MOTT: Well, I'll let him talk about this. Here's how he put it in our podcast.

LARSON: Fire is an inevitable part of this landscape. It's just we live in a flammable place, and we have to get past the promise that forestry made the world years and years ago, that we could control fire and put it out and regulate the forest in that way. What we can do is say, yes, we live in a smoky, flammable environment. How do we deal with that?

MOTT: He means things like getting indoor air filters to make sure we're staying healthy when our cities are full of smoke or getting rid of the flammable stuff on and around our homes to make our communities more resilient or even trying to reverse the trend of more and more development in forests and fire-prone landscapes. But like Larson says, it's hard to see that bigger picture and embrace good fire when we're totally socked in with smoke or flames are approaching a community.

MCCAMMON: Well, thank you so much, Nick.

MOTT: Thank you.

MCCAMMON: Montana Public Radio's Nick Mott edited the podcast "Fireline." That's new this year and now available wherever you get your podcasts.

(SOUNDBITE OF THOSE WHO RIDE WITH GIANTS' "THE GUARDIANS OF THE DEEPNESS") Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.