The latest forecast from the National Weather Service shows slightly lower rainfall totals than previously expected across Western North Carolina.
Moderate to heavy rain is expected to move in this evening and continue into Wednesday morning. The forecast projects a brief lull during the day before rain picks up again late Wednesday, peaking Wednesday night.
A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 7 a.m. Wednesday for Buncombe, Henderson, Polk, Rutherford, Yancey, and surrounding areas, with southern Jackson and Transylvania counties now included. An Ice Storm Warning is in effect for Avery and northwestern Burke counties, where over a quarter-inch of ice accumulation is possible.
Rainfall rates across the region aren’t expected to exceed two inches in any six-hour period, which forecasters say helps keep flooding concerns in check. However, they continue to monitor conditions closely.
Earlier, on Monday, meteorologists were tracking a slow-moving system that is still expected to bring a wintry mix to Western North Carolina, potentially posing minor flooding risks in areas still recovering from flooding in Hurricane Helene. The National Weather Service called for freezing rain first, followed by heavy rain, for the region over the next few days.
Ice accumulation could create hazardous conditions on roads, bridges, and sidewalks, especially during Tuesday’s morning and evening commutes.
Periods of rain, a NWS weather outlook bulletin states, could create “isolated nuisance flooding” in parts of the North Carolina mountains. NWS forecasts heavy rain Wednesday evening into Thursday morning as temperatures drop. Meteorology experts consider flood events where only minor damage is expected and there’s no significant threat to public safety to be “nuisance flooding.”
Still, rainfall on already saturated soil could create conditions for minor stream flooding, the NWS warned Monday.
Forecast models indicate the highest rainfall will be in the Joyce Kilmer Wilderness area in western Graham County, where more than six inches of rain is possible. Areas west of Franklin, including the Snowbird Mountains and Wayah Bald, are projected to receive four to five inches with similar amounts expected in the Smokies, from Clingmans Dome to Mount Guyot, as well as the Balsams.
Transylvania County Manager Jaime Laughter said the county is working closely with NWS to monitor the situation.
“We encourage anyone who lives in a flood-prone area to continue to stay aware of the weather and exercise caution if floodwaters start to rise,” Laughter told BPR.
Buncombe County spokesperson Lillian Govus told BPR the county is making preparations for dangerous weather. “We've activated a swiftwater rescue team to support as needed,” she said in an email.
Canton Mayor Zeb Smathers told BPR in an email Monday that the town is taking some precautionary measures, “but nothing extraordinary.”
Hendersonville Communications Director Allison Justus said the city may put up barriers in certain areas depending on flooding predictions. Officials, Justus said, are monitoring the forecast but there was no emergency response deployed as of late Monday.
This is a developing story and will be updated.
Helen Chickering, Laura Hackett, Katie Myers and Felicia Sonmez contributed to this report.
